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#The Sizemore Investment Letter RSS Feed The Sizemore Investment Letter

The Sizemore Investment Letter

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Welcome to Sizemore Financial Publishing, LLC

In order to make superior investments, you need to have superior
information. You have to approach the investment process in an
innovative manner. And perhaps most importantly, you must see both the
forest and the trees, the macro and the micro. The Sizemore Investment
Letter will give you bold,original ideas outside of the mainstream
financial press. In every issue, you will get content that is simply
not available anywhere else.

Summer Reading

July 28th, 2010

This set of book reviews originally appeared in the July 2008 issue of
the HS Dent Forecast month and cover a wide variety of topics:
financial bubbles, pension funding, healthcare, immigration, population
control, and of course, age demographics. Before your next trip to the
beach, make a stop by the bookstore and toss one of these in your bag.

The New Paradigm for Financial Markets
by George Soros

The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and
What It Means- We will start our summer reading list with George
Soros's most recent book, The New Paradigm for Financial
Markets. In the opening pages, Soros gives a good history and analysis
of the 2007-2008 credit bubble and crisis using some rather sobering
language:

We are in the midst of a financial crisis the likes of which has not
been seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. To be sure, it is
not the prelude to another Great Depression. History does not repeat
itself. The banking system will not be allowed to collapse as it did
in 1932 exactly because its collapse then caused the Great
Depression. At the same time, the current crisis is not comparable
to the periodic crises which have afflicted particular segments of
the financial system since the 1980s.... This crisis is not confined
to a particular firm or a particular segment of the financial
system; it has brought the entire system to the brink of a
breakdown, and it is being contained only with the greatest
difficulty. This will have far-reaching consequences. It is not
business as usual but the end of an era.

Read More

Tags: George Soros

Making Sense of Information Overload

July 28th, 2010

"The Internet's sheer scale means that listening to all of the noise
would result in information overload. Before it can be understood
effectively, it needs to be harnessed into usable data."

-Dalrymple and Chrysafis, 2010

The quote above is particular true in the financial markets, where we
at The Sizemore Investment Letter operate. The Information Revolution
of the 1990s unleashed incredible, exponential amounts of new
information. The rise of social media and standardized blogging
platforms ten years later has kicked this revolution into overdrive.

In our office, we are voracious readers. We consume a mind-boggling
amount of written material. In print, we get the Financial Times, Wall
Street Journal, New York Times, Barron's, the Economist, Foreign
Affairs, the Harvard Business Review...and the list goes on. Our online
reading consumption is even bigger.
Read More

Tags: Joel Dalrymple

Genetics, the China-Tibet Dispute, and Investment Psychology

July 26th, 2010

In "Human and Economic Evolution," I discussed how natural selection
is alive and well among humans, and used such examples as genetic
resistance to malaria among Africans and high aptitudes in the maths
and sciences among Ashkenazi Jews. Today I'd like to discuss an
interesting finding reported in The Economist that is relevant to the
China/Tibet dispute, and I'm going to tie it into a broader discussion
of the human brain and investment psychology.

Tibetans and their supporters in Western countries have long contended
that the Han Chinese do not belong in Tibet. New genetic research
suggests they may be correct-to an extent.
Read More

Tags: china, James Montier, Ken Fisher

The Ghosts of Milton Friedman and John Maynard Keynes

July 23rd, 2010

I originally penned this article for the August 2007 issue of the HS
Dent Forecast-nearly three years ago. My comments on deflation and
consumer spending turned out to be right on the mark.

The late Milton Friedman may be the most accomplished economist of his
generation. Just as his predecessor John Maynard Keynes influenced
every aspect of economic thinking and policy in the 1930s, 40s, and
50s, virtually every significant development in recent decades towards
free and open markets bears Friedman's mark. Friedman's Chicago School
provided much of the intellectual fuel for the Reagan and Thatcher
Revolutions in America and Britain. Even Augusto Pinochet, the Chilean
military dictator, staffed his government with "Chicago Boys" who
eventually gave Chile one of the most competitive economies in the
developing world. Milton Friedman was a revolutionary who truly changed
the world, though this piece is not about his intellectual exploits.
Rather, it explains the economist's theories on consumer behavior and
relates them to our own research. We will attempt to add demographic
insights into the venerable Milton Friedman's work and discuss the
implications for the next economic season.
Read More

Tags: John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman

Book Review and Analysis: The Ascent of Money

July 22nd, 2010

We have always believed that history--and particularly economic and
market history--tends to follow long cycles. For this reason we find a
lot of value in reading economic history books. One well-researched
economic history book can add clarity that can get lost in the daily
barrage of newspaper and magazine articles. The problem is that many
are mind-numbingly dry or, like Charles Mackey's classic Extraordinary
Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds , written in an
English vocabulary from the Victorian period and incredible dense to
read. Read More

Tags: bubble

Sizemore Capital Reallocating to High-Dividend Stocks

July 20th, 2010

The following is an internal trade memo from Sizemore Capital
Management, reproduced with permission.

Given the recent correction in the equity markets and our belief that
high-dividend stocks offer better value than bonds at current prices,
we felt the time was right to liquidate our position in municipal bonds
and to reallocate the funds to high-dividend stocks via an ETF, the
WisdomTree LargeCap Dividend Fund (DLN).

DLN is the ideal position for our current strategy. Many of the
companies we have recommended in The Sizemore Investment Letter are
among the fund's top holding, including AT&T, Johnson & Johnson,
Microsoft, Philip Morris International and Procter & Gamble. In DLN we
get a cash yield comparable to a ladder of Treasury securities, but
unlike bond interest--which does not increase over the life of the
bond--the dividends of DLN's equity holdings should rise in the
quarters ahead.

The market's currently elevated level of volatility shows no sign of
abating, and a general market selloff, were it to occur, could send
DLN's price lower in the short term. But given the attractive pricing
of DLN, we would consider any such volatility to be little more than
short-term noise. We consider this a low-risk and potentially
high-return allocation for the Sizemore Capital Management Tactical
Portfolio.

Respectfully,
Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA

This blog is a free service of Sizemore Financial Publishing LLC,
publisher of the Sizemore Investment Letter.

If you're not reading the Sizemore Investment Letter, then you are
missing out on rock-solid investment recommendations designed to profit
from the major macro trends shaping the world today.

SUBSCRIBE TODAY to a 3-month FREE TRIAL and get access to information
that is simply not available anywhere else.

Tags: Sizemore Capital

Human and Economic Evolution

July 19th, 2010

At The Sizemore Investment Letter, demographic trends and their
effects on the economy are a big part of our research. We generally
have a practical goal, such as estimating the demand for a company or
industry's products. However, sometimes we like to look at the long
term--the extreme long term. This month we are going to take a look at
some fascinating new research from Gregory Cochran and Henry
Harpending, both professors of anthropology at the University of Utah.
Their new book, The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated
Human Evolution , is a revolutionary new look at modern human
evolution with several important implications for the future.

The 10,000 Year Explosion: How Civilization Accelerated Human
Evolution- The traditional view among both natural and
social scientists is that human evolution stopped before the advent of
civilization and that all human progress in the millennia that followed
was a result of cultural rather than physical evolution. The belief is
that complex brains enable humans to create and harness the power of
new technology, making biological evolution unnecessary. In order to
fly, modern humans do not have to mutate and sprout wings, they can
instead invent the airplane. Darwinian natural selection now is applied
to ideas, technologies, and economic systems rather than to the human
genome. Read More

Tags: popular

Boom or Bust: Summer 2010 Book Update

July 14th, 2010

The following is an excerpt from the Summer 2010 update to Boom or
Bust, by Charles L. Sizemore, CFA and Douglas C. Robinson.

Welcome to the first update to Boom or Bust: Understanding and
Profiting from a Changing Consumer Economy . In the fifteen
months that have passed since we published the book, it has been more
"bust" than "boom," unfortunately, with unemployment at thirty-year
highs, housing starts and new home sales near all-time lows, Europe in
the midst of a sovereign debt crisis, and the stock market giving back
some of the gains of the post-crash rally. The state and municipal
budget crisis also continues to deepen. To give an extreme example,
Maywood, a city in Los Angeles County, recently made headlines by
laying off its entire municipal workforce, including the police. All
city business has been outsourced.

Boom Or Bust: Understanding And Profiting From A Changing Consumer
Economy- Not all the news is bad, however. Though still near its
highs, the unemployment rate has stopped rising (though
certainly it could start rising again if the discouraged workers who
left the workforce reenter the job hunt). The housing market remains
deeply depressed, but the rental market has shown some signs of
improving. There has been no resolution to the European sovereign debt
crisis, though thus far there have been no outright defaults and the
major European countries appear willing to try fiscal austerity
measures. And while the market is down from its recent highs, we are
starting to see some real investment bargains due to the correction.
Read More

Tags: popular

Sizemore Capital Management Second Quarter 2010 Letter to Investors

July 12th, 2010

The following is an excerpt from Sizemore Capital Management LLC's
second quarter Letter to Investors, reproduced with permission.

We made several significant changes to the Tactical Portfolio during
the second quarter. The first was the closing of our short position in
the euro. In a May 14 trade memo, we wrote,

With negative sentiment on the euro bordering on hysteria, we felt the
time was right to take profits and close our short position in the
common currency via the Market Vectors Double-Short Euro ETN (NYSE:
DRR). All Sizemore Capital portfolios have been sold out of their
positions in DRR. Read More

Tags: popular, Sizemore Capital

Why Take Risks When These Returns Are Available?

July 12th, 2010

The following originally appeared in SFO Weekly.

The market is a funny thing. Financial theory would tell you that in
order to get a higher return you must accept higher risk by buying more
volatile investments. Most of the time, this is true. You're not
generally going to enjoy market-beating returns by buying established,
staid Dow components.

Blue chips are generally already so big, that their best days of growth
are behind them. Plus, because investors generally pay a premium for
safety, they are usually priced too expensively to offer high returns.

Well, after three years of relentless volatility, we have some
interesting anomalies forming. Some of America's biggest and best
companies are also among its cheapest.

This should not be. But it is true.
Read More

Tags: contrarian investing
<- Previous Entries

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Subscribe
-
* Human and Economic Evolution
* Boom or Bust: Summer 2010 Book Update
* Sizemore Capital Management Second Quarter 2010 Letter to Investors
* Changing Global Demographics: China's Little Emperors
* Telecom is Dead. Long Live Telecom.
* Risk, Return, and Reality Revisited
* Nokia Now a Commodity Business -- But Still a Better Bet than Apple
* Follow up to "For Opportunities in the Luxury Sector, Look East"
* Sizemore Capital Covering Short Position in Gold
* Getting Paid While the Market Melts Down
* Japan: "Buy Our Bonds, and Women Will Love You"
* Sizemore Capital Management Analysis of the Luxury Goods Sector
* Israel and Turkey: How Changing Demographics Are Affecting
International Relations in the Middle East
* The Euro Is Due for a Bounce
* The Boom In New Sports Stadiums Has Finally Ended
* What to Read: The Best Financial Newspapers and Magazines
* Terrorism, Russia, and Geopolitical Concerns for the Decades Ahead
* Investing Lessons from a Peruvian Horse Show
* Was Hyman Minsky a Desert Bedouin?
* Geeks, Geezers, and Googlization
* Changing Global Demographics: Christians and Muslims in the Middle
East
* The College Admissions Wave: Will the Number of Students Keep
Rising Forever?
* The Economics of Japan's Naughty Old Men
* The Iran Protests and Demographics
* Thoughts Over a Cigar
* Grantham: On Reinvesting When Terrified

© 2010 The Sizemore Investment Letter.

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